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Last year at MacWorld, Steve Jobs announced that 2006 would see many great new products. That was clearly an overstatement. Even though most Macintosh computers were redesigned as part of the Intel processor adoption plan, I think that it is fair to say that most Apple customers were clearly disappointed by the level of innovation displayed by the Cupertino company. This is specially true when it comes to the iPod product line. Sure, the iPod shuffle and the iPod nano were totally redesigned, but since the functionality remained the same, there really wasn’t much to write home about. Even less impressive were the marginal improvements made to the iPod with video. Sure, there were some bright spots, the iPod Hi-Fi offers rich sound in a practical form-factor and the Nike+iPod kit is a nice addition to the iPod nano, but nothing earth-shattering was released.

As a result, expectations for this MacWorld are high, extremely high. In fact, probably too high. People expect Apple to introduce the long rumored iPhone alongside a new “true” video iPod and even an “ultra-light” Mac Book Pro. This is simply not realistic. In order to be effective, a product launch has to focus on a limited number of products and convey a clear message. Apple understands this very well. In September, for example, the 24″ iMac was launched without fanfare, just a couple of days before an Apple event. Why? Because they wanted the press to focus on the new iPods as well as the strategy that the company had designed for the future, nothing else.

Simultaneous product launches and rare and usually ineffective. I recall a 2003 Hewlett-Packard product launch that introduced over 150 new consumer products, but that largely remains an exception. These types of events are generally targeted at industry analysts and resellers rather than consumers. That is not the kind of audience you get at a MacWorld keynote.

So, what should we expect from MacWorld?

1. State of the union address.
Last year was a great year for Apple. We should expect Steve to talk about significant market share gains for the Macintosh division as well as stellar results for the iPod.

2. Upgrades to iLife and iWork
This shouldn’t come as a major surprise as iLife and iWork are important cash-generators for Apple. That is why Steve has to generate excitement over new versions at each MacWorld. Last year Steve almost ignored iWork and instead focused on iLife which included many new features as well as a new application, iWeb. This year expect Steve to spend more time on iWork, specially if a rumored spreadsheet application is finally announced, which at this point is likely. Nobody really expects major changes to iLife, except for probably an important iWeb revision.

3. Leopard preview
Mac OS X is another important cash-cow for Apple. Steve has to generate a lot of buzz to make sure that Mac users lineup in Q2 to purchase the new OS when it becomes available. This is specially true, now that Microsoft is so close to launch Vista to the general public. Therefore expect Steve to show some of the “secret” features he talked about at WWDC.

4. 802.11 everywhere and iTV
We already know that Apple will officially launch the iTV (along with a new name). That, by itself is important, but I think that Steve Jobs will also use that announcement to endorse the emerging 802.11n standard and announce a free OS upgrade (10.4.9) to enable it on modern Intel Macs that already support it. He will probably also announce an external 802.11n adapter for older hardware as well as a replacement for the Airport Express.

5. Updated Mac Mini and/or new Cinema Displays
Apple has not updated their displays in over two years now, and it shows. This means that in order to remain competitive they need to refresh their line of Cinema Displays. Some expect the new displays to sport a built-in camera, but personally, I am not convinced. This is probably not a very important feature for the pros who buy multiple displays to edit video or design magazines. I find it more likely that Apple will add new features that will make the displays more palatable to consumers. On the other hand, the Intel based Mac mini, which is now turning one, could finally evolve into the media center everyone has speculated with.

6. One more thing
All these expected announcements do not leave much time to introduce a lot of additional new products, unless anyone expects Steve to stay on stage for four hours. My personal bet is that Apple will release a new video iPod with a much larger screen, but similar in concept to the current iPod with video. Don’t get me wrong, I do believe that Apple will ultimately release an iPhone but not at MacWorld. When that finally happens, probably after the echoes of MacWorld and CES start to fade, it will be at a special event, in order to generate additional buzz but primarily to have enough time to explain in depth how Apple will differentiate its offering from the competition as well as its mobile strategy.