Marketing
I just listened to a podcast where Microsoft’s Ken Pawlak was talking about the incredible potential of ultra-mobile PCs connected to the Internet through mobile operators. What struck me was the enormous amount of data he had to back his claims. The company had gone though a tremendous effort to understand their potential customers, interviewing face-to-face 15,000 persons in five different emerging countries. They used the data not only to size the potential market but also to define the devices hardware characteristics. They found out that the screen size should be somewhere between 9 and 12 inches and that customers absolutely want the device to include a DVD player.
My question is, do people really want a DVD or do they think they need one because they can’t imagine a portable device without it. Personally I seldom use my laptop’s DVD burner. In fact I am pretty sure that I have only used it three times over the lat year, just to install software (Leopard, iWork and iLife). That means that if I had been able to download the software quickly from the Internet or get it on a Flash memory drive, my need for a DVD drive would be totally inexistent. I am sure I am not alone.
I think that Microsoft’s approach is totally wrong. People who don’t know computers tend to ask for advice from those in the know. It is those trendsetters who need to be convinced that your products are good. They will be the ones selling these benefits to all the followers. Those designing products based on followers feedback will fail because improvements over existing wares will be marginal compared to what can be obtained by applying radical new designs that challenge the status-quo. In mature markets where trendsetters aren’t as important (think soap or toilet paper) since there is no such thing as product specialists, focus groups and surveys may still play an important role, but certainly not in the high-tech industry where capturing the interest of early adopters is crucial.